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A communication transmitted from Yi-An Huang, City Manager, relative to the City of Cambridge retaining its AAA rating from the nation's three major credit rating agencies

CMA 2025 #55·Council meeting Mar 24, 2025·9 pages·📄 Original PDF (city portal)
New Issue │ February 14, 2025 fitchratings.com 1 Public Finance Tax Supported United States Cambridge, Massachusetts The 'AAA' rating on the city’s IDR and GO bonds reflects the application of Fitch Ratings’ new “U.S. Public Finance Local Government Rating Criteria” and Fitch's expectation for the city to maintain healthy financial flexibility through future economic cycles, consistent with its history of strong operating performance and robust reserves. The 'AAA' IDR incorporates the city’s 'aaa' financial resilience assessment, which reflects a 'high-midrange' level of budgetary flexibility and an expectation that unrestricted general fund reserves (the sum of committed, assigned and unassigned) will be maintained at or above 10% of spending. The city’s unrestricted reserves have been maintained well above this level for several years and were at 44% of spending in fiscal 2024. The rating also captures the city’s 'midrange' long-term liability metrics associated with direct governmental debt (net of self-supporting debt) and Fitch-adjusted net pension liabilities (NPLs). Liability metrics are expected to remain 'midrange' over the near-term given the city’s plans for additional governmental debt and amortization of existing debt. Demographic and economic level metrics on a composite basis are considered 'strongest', including unemployment rates below the national average, high rates of educational attainment and very high median household income (MHI) levels when compared to Fitch portfolio averages. Additionally, the rating reflects the application of a positive one-notch Additional Analytical Factor, which recognizes the city’s revenue raising capacity due to its exceptionally large market value per capita of over $600,000 and high revenue control. Rating Sensitivities Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating Action/Downgrade • A substantial increase in long-term liabilities associated with debt or increased NPLs that begins to negatively impact future budget decisions and operating results, assuming current levels of resident income, governmental expenditures and revenues; • A decline in unrestricted general fund balances sustained at or below 10% of spending, leading to a lower assessment of financial resilience; • A material sustained weakening of demographic and economic metrics. Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating Action/Upgrade • Not applicable given the 'AAA' rating and Stable Outlook. Security The bonds are a general obligation of the city and are backed by its full faith and credit and a property tax levy that is limited by state statute. Ratings Long-Term IDR AAA Outlooks Long-Term IDR Stable New Issues $165,860,000 General Obligation Municipal Purpose Loan Bonds, Series 2025 AAA Sale Date March 5, 2025 Outstanding Debt General Obligation Bonds AAA General Obligation Municipal Purpose Loan Bonds AAA Applicable Criteria U.S. Public Finance Local Government Rating Criteria (April 2024) Related Research Fitch Rates Cambridge, MA's $180.1MM Series 2024 GO Bonds 'AAA'; Outlook Stable (February 2024) Analysts Arthur Tildesley III [phone removed] [email removed] Kevin Dolan [phone removed] [email removed]
Cambridge, Massachusetts New Issue │ February 14, 2025 fitchratings.com 2 Public Finance Tax Supported United States Rating Headroom & Positioning Cambridge Model Implied Rating: 'AAA' (Numerical Value: 11.56) • Metric Profile: 'AAA' (Numerical Value: 10.56) • Net Additional Analytical Factor Notching: +1.0 Individual Additional Analytical Notching Factors: • Revenue Capacity: +1.0 Cambridge's Model Implied Rating is 'AAA'. The associated numerical value of 11.56 is at the upper end of the range for a 'AAA' rating. The Local Government Rating Model generates Model Implied Ratings, which communicate the issuer's credit quality relative to Fitch's local government rating portfolio. (The Model Implied Rating will be the Issuer Default Rating except in certain circumstances explained in the applicable criteria.) The Model Implied Rating is expressed via a numerical value calibrated to Fitch's long-term rating scale, which ranges from 10.0 or higher (AAA), 9.0 (AA+), 8.0 (AA) and so forth down to 1.0 (BBB– and below). Model Implied Ratings reflect the combination of issuer-specific metrics and assessments to generate a Metric Profile and a structured framework to account for Additional Analytical Factors not captured in the Metric Profile that can either mitigate or exacerbate credit risks. Additional Analytical Factors are reflected in notching from the Metric Profile and are capped at +/-3 notches. Current Developments Cambridge's financial profile remains very strong. General fund net operating results for fiscal 2024 reflect a $61.8 million net operating surplus (7% of spending), increasing the city's unrestricted fund balance to $385 million from $320 million, or a healthy 44% of general fund spending. Results include transfers out of $19 million for capital projects, following positive variances in both revenues and expenditures. The fiscal 2025 $955.6 million general fund budget is up $72 million, or 8%, over the fiscal 2024 adopted operating budget. The tax levy was raised 9.21%, reaching $628.4 million. Budget increases are attributable to employee salary and benefit costs, higher debt service costs and an increase in school department funding to support, in part, an extension of kindergarten to full day. In addition, the budget includes a $10 million appropriation from the debt stabilization fund, similar to fiscals 2024 and 2023, and is being used to support debt service related to reconstruction of an elementary school. This fund is reported as a committed fund in the general fund. Following an extended period of yoy growth in tax base values, fiscal 2025 total assessed values (TAVs) were flat yoy, growing approximately 0.5%. Commercial and industrial properties represent 44% of the city's fiscal 2025 TAV. Combined office/lab vacancy rates were 15.2% for third quarter of 2024, up from 7.3% during the same period the prior year, according to CB Richard Ellis reports. The combined office/lab vacancy rate was 17.9% for Boston and 20.5% for the metro suburbs. Cambridge reports that the lab market has faced some challenges, with increased inventory, high interest rates and rising inflation. YOY lab vacancy increased to 12.2% in 3Q24 from 5% in 3Q23, but remains one of the lowest in the region. Similarly, the office vacancy rate rose to 20% in 3Q24 from 12.5% in 3Q23. New development and construction activity for office, lab, residential and mixed-use has begun to slow due to relatively high rates in office vacancies, reduced demand for lab space and peak valuations of residential properties, resulting a slowdown of sales activity. Fitch expects long-term demand to be sound due to Cambridge's central location near the city of Boston, its importance as a research center for life and sciences companies and the presence of the country's leading higher education institutions, Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). Profile The city is an important economic component of the Boston metropolitan area and Massachusetts as a whole and benefits from the presence of both Harvard and MIT. These institutions are the city's top two employers, while other major employers include the city itself, Mt. Auburn Hospital and a number of biotechnology companies including Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Biogen, Novartis and Sanofi. Cambridge continues to strengthen its position as a national leader in the life sciences and high-tech sectors. Expansion in these sectors has contributed to a notable tax base, employment and resident income growth over the past several years, and is projected by the city to continue for at least the near term. Wealth levels are above state and national averages and the unemployment rate (3.2% as of December 2024) is consistently below them. Cambridge also continues to attract research and development companies, ranging from startups to international companies.
Cambridge, Massachusetts New Issue │ February 14, 2025 fitchratings.com 3 Public Finance Tax Supported United States Several major software and internet companies have established research and development operations in Cambridge, including Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta. While space for new development is somewhat limited in Cambridge, new construction or rehabilitation of existing properties is underway in various areas of the city and should support demand. TAV performance reflects this activity as well as growth in residential values. TAV of $76.2 billion for fiscal 2025 on a per capita basis is a very high $645,000. Economic development districts located in the city continue to provide opportunities for current and future economic expansion and new housing opportunities. The city is projecting that TAV through 2029 will remain close to current levels, driven by slower demand in commercial real estate market offset by growth in residential values. For FY26, the city is projecting that commercial/industrial values will decline by 15%, whereas residential values will increase by 4%. Declines in commercial/industrial values are projected to continue to increase, although at a lesser degree, until 2029, when they are expected to stabilize. Fitch considers these projections to be reasonable based on higher-than-usual vacancy rates and new commercial and residential construction underway and proposed. Key Drivers Financial Profile Financial Resilience — 'aaa' Cambridge's financial resilience is driven by the combination of its 'High' revenue control assessment and 'Midrange' expenditure control assessment, culminating in a 'High Midrange' budgetary flexibility assessment.
Cambridge, Massachusetts New Issue │ February 14, 2025 fitchratings.com 4 Public Finance Tax Supported United States • Revenue control assessment: High • Expenditure control assessment: Midrange • Budgetary flexibility assessment: High Midrange • Minimum fund balance for current financial resilience assessment: >=10.0% • Current year fund balance to expenditure ratio: 43.9% (2024) • Lowest fund balance to expenditure ratio for the fiscal-year period 2020-2024: 38.2% (2023) Revenue Volatility — 'Strongest' Cambridge's weakest historical three-year revenue performance is neutral to the Model Implied Rating. The revenue volatility metric is an estimate of potential revenue volatility based on the issuer's historical experience relative to the median for the Fitch-rated local government portfolio. The metric helps to differentiate issuers by the scale of revenue loss that would have to be addressed through revenue raising, cost controls or utilization of reserves through economic cycles. • Lowest three-year revenue performance (based on revenues dating back to 2005): 3.9% increase for the three-year period ending fiscal 2010 • Median issuer decline: -4.5% (2024) Additional Analytical Factors and Notching Financial Profile Additional Analytical Factors and Notching: +1.0 notch (for Revenue Capacity) The Model Implied Rating includes a +1 notch Additional Analytical Factor due to the city's exceptionally high taxable assessed value per capita of $645,000, which would suggest a greater capacity to tap into revenue-generating resources to support governmental costs and fiscal resilience than that communicated by the metric profile. State-Specific Revenue/Expenditure Context & Budgetary Control Pursuant to state law, Proposition 2 1/2 limits the city's ability to levy property taxes by: 1) a “levy ceiling,” an absolute cap on the level of property taxation, set at 2.5% of the overall property tax valuation (primary limit); and 2) a levy limit that restricts the annual growth in taxation to 2.5% over the previous year's levy plus the value of new growth (secondary limit). Taxation in excess of the levy limit (plus any new growth) requires voter approval. Management has typically levied below the ceiling each year. Any excess in levy capacity is carried forward and available for use at any time. The city's excess tax levy limit is approximately $189 million, down slightly from fiscal 2024. This excess levy capacity totals approximately 20% of the fiscal 2025 budgeted general fund revenues and provides for high revenue raising flexibility if needed. Demographic and Economic Strength Population Trend — 'Weak' Based on the median of 10-year annual percentage change in population, Cambridge's population trend is assessed as 'Weak'. Population trend: 0.7% 2023 median of 10-year annual percentage change in population (38th percentile) Unemployment, Educational Attainment and MHI Level — 'Strongest' The overall strength of Cambridge's demographic and economic level indicators (unemployment rate, educational attainment, MHI in 2024 are assessed as 'Strongest' on a composite basis, performing at the 92nd percentile of Fitch's local government rating portfolio. This is due to relatively strong education attainment levels, median-issuer indexed adjusted MHI and unemployment rate. • Unemployment rate as a percentage of national rate: 66.7% 2023 (91st percentile), relative to the national rate of 3.6% • Percentage of population with a bachelor's degree or higher: 80.2% (2023) (100th percentile) • MHI as a percentage of the portfolio median: 142.3% (2023) (85th percentile) Economic Concentration and Population Size — 'Strongest' Cambridge's population in 2023 was of sufficient size and the economy was sufficiently diversified to qualify for Fitch's highest overall size/diversification category.
Cambridge, Massachusetts New Issue │ February 14, 2025 fitchratings.com 5 Public Finance Tax Supported United States The composite metric acts asymmetrically, with most issuers (above the 15th percentile for each metric) sufficiently diversified to minimize risks associated with small population and economic concentration. Downward effects of the metric on the Metric Profile are most pronounced for the least economically diverse issuers (in the fifth percentile for the metric or lower). The economic concentration percentage shown below is defined as the sum of the absolute deviation of the percentage of personal income by major economic sectors relative to the U.S. distribution. • Population size: 118,214 (2023) (above the 15th percentile) • Economic concentration: 46.0% (2024) (above the 15th percentile) Long-Term Liability Burden Long-Term Liability Burden — 'Midrange' Cambridge's long-term liability metrics range from 'weak' to 'strong' across each of the three dimensions: liabilities to personal income, liabilities to governmental revenue and carrying costs to governmental expenditures. The long-term liability composite metric in 2024 is at the 56th percentile, roughly in line with Fitch's local government rating portfolio. • Liabilities to personal income: 6.7% analyst input (39th percentile) (vs. 6.1% 2024 actual) • Liabilities to governmental revenue: 89.8% analyst input (89th percentile) (vs. 81.9% 2024 actual) • Carrying costs to governmental expenditures: 14.7% (2024) (50th percentile) Additional Insight The OPEB contribution requirements of OPEB plan members and the city are established and may be amended by the city. Ten percent of the calculated contribution is currently paid by retirees through pension benefit deductions. The state allows up to 50% to be paid by retirees. The remainder of such cost is funded by the city. The city currently contributes enough money to the OPEB plan to satisfy current obligations on a pay-as-you-go basis, but has historically overfunded to support fund assets. The city’s net OPEB liability of $756 million was 5% funded as of fiscal 2024 and represents 5% of personal income. The city updated the pension funding strategy to smooth out annual contributions between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2028 to fully fund the unfunded pension liability by fiscal 2029. The change to fiscal 2029 was due to the city’s aggressive funding scheduling and an actuarial loss in fiscal 2024, which would have resulted in substantially higher contributions over the near term to meet the prior fully funded date. In fiscal 2025, the city contributed $78.8 million, which was reset to $62.6 million in this actuarial valuation following the change in the fully funded date. The excess $16.2 million above the $62.6 million actuarily determined contribution (ADC) will be used to offset fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 actuarial contributions and move the estimated fully funded out to fiscal 2029. Analyst Inputs to the Model Analyst inputs to the model reflect metric adjustments to account for historical data anomalies, forward-looking performance shifts or non-recurring events that may otherwise skew the time series. Fitch adjusted the city’s debt liabilities to reflect amortization of principal on outstanding debt since the end of fiscal 2024 and the current 2025 issuance. ESG Considerations The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to either their nature or the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products#esg-relevance-scores. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com
Cambridge, Massachusetts New Issue │ February 14, 2025 fitchratings.com 6 Public Finance Tax Supported United States Financial Summary ($000, audited fiscal years ended June 30) 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 General fund revenues Property tax 439,072 477,369 497,042 530,537 579,388 Sales tax 26,713 12,017 20,401 30,112 32,976 Income tax — — — — — Other tax 8,029 8,219 8,535 8,455 8,683 Total taxes - undifferentiated — — — — — Intergovernmental 82,997 88,639 71,847 76,348 82,213 Other revenue 141,347 152,589 143,334 174,699 211,853 Total 698,158 738,834 741,159 820,151 915,114 General fund expenditures General government 41,729 49,577 49,050 53,528 58,884 Public safety 143,442 147,363 158,856 170,269 178,812 Educational 234,864 258,815 242,833 252,436 272,012 Debt service 74,276 78,833 82,107 86,986 89,251 Capital outlay — — — — — Other expenditures 165,223 192,006 201,407 214,812 232,934 Total 659,533 726,594 734,253 778,030 831,894 Transfers in and other sources 25,649 45,952 20,661 21,297 22,580 Transfers out and other sources 87,941 77,878 50,676 59,032 44,000 Net transfers & other -62,291 -31,926 -30,015 -37,735 -21,420 Adjustment for bond proceeds and extraordinary one-time uses — 21,456 — — — Net Op. surplus (Deficit) after transfers -23,666 -19,686 -23,109 4,386 61,800 Net Op. surplus (Deficit)/ (total expenditures + transfers out and other uses)(%) -3.17 -2.51 -2.94 0.52 7.06 Total fund balance 364,065 344,379 321,270 325,656 387,456 Unrestricted fund balance 356,931 341,633 317,212 319,567 384,565 Other available fund balances — — — — — Total available unrestricted reserves (GF + Other) 356,931 341,633 317,212 319,567 384,565 Available reserves as % of spending (Adj for bond proceeds and other one-time uses) 47.75 43.63 40.41 38.18 43.91 Sources: Fitch Ratings, Fitch Solutions, Cambridge
Cambridge, Massachusetts New Issue │ February 14, 2025 fitchratings.com 7 Public Finance Tax Supported United States Long-Term Liability Burden ($000, audited fiscal year ended June 30) 2024 Direct debt 622,308 Less: Self-supporting debt 113,852 Net direct debt 508,456 Fitch adjusted NPL 382,283 Net direct debt + Fitch-adjusted net pension liabilities (NPL) 890,739 Population 118,214 Per capita personal income 123,795 Estimated personal income ($000) 14,634,298 Net debt + Fitch-adjusted NPL /personal income (%) 6.1 Total governmental revenues 1,088,133 Net direct debt + Fitch adjusted NPL as percentage of governmental revenue (%) 81.86 Debt service (net of state support) 89,251 Actuarially determined pension contributions 50,481 Actual OPEB contributions 27,818 Total Governmental expenditures 1,143,235 Carrying costs/governmental expenditures (%) 14.66 Note: Figures above do not reflect any analyst input adjustments. Sources: Fitch Ratings, Fitch Solutions, Cambridge
Cambridge, Massachusetts New Issue │ February 14, 2025 fitchratings.com 8 Public Finance Tax Supported United States Summary Description Final value Budgetary flexibility assessments Revenue control assessment High Expenditure control assessment Midrange Collective bargaining and resolution framework Midrange Workforce outcomes Midrange Cost drivers Midrange Metrics assessments Financial profile - financial resilience aaa Financial profile - revenue volatility Strongest Demographic & economic strength - trend Weak Demographic & economic strength - level Strongest Demographic & economic strength - concentration & size Strongest Long-Term liability burden Midrange Metric profile mapping AAA Metric profile 10.56 Additional analytical Factors Total notching - capped 1 Financial profile 1 Fiscal oversight Revenue capacity 1 Contingent risks Non-recurring support or spending deferrals Political risks Management practices Demographic & economic strength Economic and institutional strength Revenue concentration risks School district resources Long-term liability burden Pension funding assumptions Pension contributions OPEB Debt structure Capital demands and affordability Model implied rating - mapping AAA Model implied rating - metric 11.56 Outliers and developing situations considerations No Notching rationale - 1 Notching rationale - 2 Issuer default rating/ issuer default credit opinion AAA Outlook/Watch RO:Sta Source: Fitch Ratings
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