Search ▸ Agenda item attachment
A communication transmitted from Yi-An Huang, City Manager, relative to the City of Cambridge retaining its AAA rating from the nation's three major credit rating agencies
New Issue │ February 14, 2025
fitchratings.com
1
Public Finance
Tax Supported
United States
Cambridge, Massachusetts
The 'AAA' rating on the city’s IDR and GO bonds reflects the application of Fitch Ratings’ new
“U.S. Public Finance Local Government Rating Criteria” and Fitch's expectation for the city to
maintain healthy financial flexibility through future economic cycles, consistent with its history
of strong operating performance and robust reserves. The 'AAA' IDR incorporates the city’s
'aaa' financial resilience assessment, which reflects a 'high-midrange' level of budgetary
flexibility and an expectation that unrestricted general fund reserves (the sum of committed,
assigned and unassigned) will be maintained at or above 10% of spending. The city’s
unrestricted reserves have been maintained well above this level for several years and were at
44% of spending in fiscal 2024.
The rating also captures the city’s 'midrange' long-term liability metrics associated with direct
governmental debt (net of self-supporting debt) and Fitch-adjusted net pension liabilities
(NPLs). Liability metrics are expected to remain 'midrange' over the near-term given the city’s
plans for additional governmental debt and amortization of existing debt.
Demographic and economic level metrics on a composite basis are considered 'strongest',
including unemployment rates below the national average, high rates of educational attainment
and very high median household income (MHI) levels when compared to Fitch portfolio
averages.
Additionally, the rating reflects the application of a positive one-notch Additional Analytical
Factor, which recognizes the city’s revenue raising capacity due to its exceptionally large
market value per capita of over $600,000 and high revenue control.
Rating Sensitivities
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Negative Rating
Action/Downgrade
•
A substantial increase in long-term liabilities associated with debt or increased NPLs
that begins to negatively impact future budget decisions and operating results, assuming
current levels of resident income, governmental expenditures and revenues;
•
A decline in unrestricted general fund balances sustained at or below 10% of spending,
leading to a lower assessment of financial resilience;
•
A material sustained weakening of demographic and economic metrics.
Factors that Could, Individually or Collectively, Lead to Positive Rating
Action/Upgrade
•
Not applicable given the 'AAA' rating and Stable Outlook.
Security
The bonds are a general obligation of the city and are backed by its full faith and credit and a
property tax levy that is limited by state statute.
Ratings
Long-Term IDR
AAA
Outlooks
Long-Term IDR
Stable
New Issues
$165,860,000 General
Obligation Municipal Purpose
Loan Bonds, Series 2025
AAA
Sale Date
March 5, 2025
Outstanding Debt
General Obligation Bonds
AAA
General Obligation Municipal
Purpose Loan Bonds
AAA
Applicable Criteria
U.S. Public Finance Local Government Rating
Criteria (April 2024)
Related Research
Fitch Rates Cambridge, MA's $180.1MM
Series 2024 GO Bonds 'AAA'; Outlook Stable
(February 2024)
Analysts
Arthur Tildesley III
[phone removed]
[email removed]
Kevin Dolan
[phone removed]
[email removed]
Cambridge, Massachusetts
New Issue │ February 14, 2025
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2
Public Finance
Tax Supported
United States
Rating Headroom & Positioning
Cambridge Model Implied Rating: 'AAA' (Numerical Value: 11.56)
•
Metric Profile: 'AAA' (Numerical Value: 10.56)
•
Net Additional Analytical Factor Notching: +1.0
Individual Additional Analytical Notching Factors:
•
Revenue Capacity: +1.0
Cambridge's Model Implied Rating is 'AAA'. The associated numerical value of 11.56 is at the upper end of the range
for a 'AAA' rating.
The Local Government Rating Model generates Model Implied Ratings, which communicate the issuer's credit quality
relative to Fitch's local government rating portfolio. (The Model Implied Rating will be the Issuer Default Rating except
in certain circumstances explained in the applicable criteria.) The Model Implied Rating is expressed via a numerical
value calibrated to Fitch's long-term rating scale, which ranges from 10.0 or higher (AAA), 9.0 (AA+), 8.0 (AA) and so
forth down to 1.0 (BBB– and below).
Model Implied Ratings reflect the combination of issuer-specific metrics and assessments to generate a Metric Profile
and a structured framework to account for Additional Analytical Factors not captured in the Metric Profile that can
either mitigate or exacerbate credit risks. Additional Analytical Factors are reflected in notching from the Metric
Profile and are capped at +/-3 notches.
Current Developments
Cambridge's financial profile remains very strong. General fund net operating results for fiscal 2024 reflect a $61.8
million net operating surplus (7% of spending), increasing the city's unrestricted fund balance to $385 million from
$320 million, or a healthy 44% of general fund spending. Results include transfers out of $19 million for capital
projects, following positive variances in both revenues and expenditures.
The fiscal 2025 $955.6 million general fund budget is up $72 million, or 8%, over the fiscal 2024 adopted operating
budget. The tax levy was raised 9.21%, reaching $628.4 million. Budget increases are attributable to employee salary
and benefit costs, higher debt service costs and an increase in school department funding to support, in part, an
extension of kindergarten to full day. In addition, the budget includes a $10 million appropriation from the debt
stabilization fund, similar to fiscals 2024 and 2023, and is being used to support debt service related to reconstruction
of an elementary school. This fund is reported as a committed fund in the general fund.
Following an extended period of yoy growth in tax base values, fiscal 2025 total assessed values (TAVs) were flat yoy,
growing approximately 0.5%. Commercial and industrial properties represent 44% of the city's fiscal 2025 TAV.
Combined office/lab vacancy rates were 15.2% for third quarter of 2024, up from 7.3% during the same period the
prior year, according to CB Richard Ellis reports. The combined office/lab vacancy rate was 17.9% for Boston and
20.5% for the metro suburbs. Cambridge reports that the lab market has faced some challenges, with increased
inventory, high interest rates and rising inflation. YOY lab vacancy increased to 12.2% in 3Q24 from 5% in 3Q23, but
remains one of the lowest in the region. Similarly, the office vacancy rate rose to 20% in 3Q24 from 12.5% in 3Q23.
New development and construction activity for office, lab, residential and mixed-use has begun to slow due to relatively
high rates in office vacancies, reduced demand for lab space and peak valuations of residential properties, resulting a
slowdown of sales activity. Fitch expects long-term demand to be sound due to Cambridge's central location near the city
of Boston, its importance as a research center for life and sciences companies and the presence of the country's leading
higher education institutions, Harvard University and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT).
Profile
The city is an important economic component of the Boston metropolitan area and Massachusetts as a whole and
benefits from the presence of both Harvard and MIT. These institutions are the city's top two employers, while other
major employers include the city itself, Mt. Auburn Hospital and a number of biotechnology companies including
Takeda Pharmaceuticals, Biogen, Novartis and Sanofi.
Cambridge continues to strengthen its position as a national leader in the life sciences and high-tech sectors.
Expansion in these sectors has contributed to a notable tax base, employment and resident income growth over the
past several years, and is projected by the city to continue for at least the near term. Wealth levels are above state and
national averages and the unemployment rate (3.2% as of December 2024) is consistently below them. Cambridge
also continues to attract research and development companies, ranging from startups to international companies.
Cambridge, Massachusetts
New Issue │ February 14, 2025
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3
Public Finance
Tax Supported
United States
Several major software and internet companies have established research and development operations in Cambridge,
including Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Meta.
While space for new development is somewhat limited in Cambridge, new construction or rehabilitation of existing
properties is underway in various areas of the city and should support demand. TAV performance reflects this activity
as well as growth in residential values. TAV of $76.2 billion for fiscal 2025 on a per capita basis is a very high $645,000.
Economic development districts located in the city continue to provide opportunities for current and future economic
expansion and new housing opportunities. The city is projecting that TAV through 2029 will remain close to current
levels, driven by slower demand in commercial real estate market offset by growth in residential values. For FY26, the
city is projecting that commercial/industrial values will decline by 15%, whereas residential values will increase by 4%.
Declines in commercial/industrial values are projected to continue to increase, although at a lesser degree, until 2029,
when they are expected to stabilize. Fitch considers these projections to be reasonable based on higher-than-usual
vacancy rates and new commercial and residential construction underway and proposed.
Key Drivers
Financial Profile
Financial Resilience — 'aaa'
Cambridge's financial resilience is driven by the combination of its 'High' revenue control assessment and 'Midrange'
expenditure control assessment, culminating in a 'High Midrange' budgetary flexibility assessment.
Cambridge, Massachusetts
New Issue │ February 14, 2025
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4
Public Finance
Tax Supported
United States
•
Revenue control assessment: High
•
Expenditure control assessment: Midrange
•
Budgetary flexibility assessment: High Midrange
•
Minimum fund balance for current financial resilience assessment: >=10.0%
•
Current year fund balance to expenditure ratio: 43.9% (2024)
•
Lowest fund balance to expenditure ratio for the fiscal-year period 2020-2024: 38.2% (2023)
Revenue Volatility — 'Strongest'
Cambridge's weakest historical three-year revenue performance is neutral to the Model Implied Rating.
The revenue volatility metric is an estimate of potential revenue volatility based on the issuer's historical experience
relative to the median for the Fitch-rated local government portfolio. The metric helps to differentiate issuers by the
scale of revenue loss that would have to be addressed through revenue raising, cost controls or utilization of reserves
through economic cycles.
•
Lowest three-year revenue performance (based on revenues dating back to 2005): 3.9% increase for the
three-year period ending fiscal 2010
•
Median issuer decline: -4.5% (2024)
Additional Analytical Factors and Notching
Financial Profile Additional Analytical Factors and Notching: +1.0 notch (for Revenue Capacity)
The Model Implied Rating includes a +1 notch Additional Analytical Factor due to the city's exceptionally high taxable
assessed value per capita of $645,000, which would suggest a greater capacity to tap into revenue-generating
resources to support governmental costs and fiscal resilience than that communicated by the metric profile.
State-Specific Revenue/Expenditure Context & Budgetary Control
Pursuant to state law, Proposition 2 1/2 limits the city's ability to levy property taxes by: 1) a “levy ceiling,” an absolute
cap on the level of property taxation, set at 2.5% of the overall property tax valuation (primary limit); and 2) a levy limit
that restricts the annual growth in taxation to 2.5% over the previous year's levy plus the value of new growth
(secondary limit). Taxation in excess of the levy limit (plus any new growth) requires voter approval.
Management has typically levied below the ceiling each year. Any excess in levy capacity is carried forward and
available for use at any time. The city's excess tax levy limit is approximately $189 million, down slightly from fiscal
2024. This excess levy capacity totals approximately 20% of the fiscal 2025 budgeted general fund revenues and
provides for high revenue raising flexibility if needed.
Demographic and Economic Strength
Population Trend — 'Weak'
Based on the median of 10-year annual percentage change in population, Cambridge's population trend is assessed as
'Weak'.
Population trend: 0.7% 2023 median of 10-year annual percentage change in population (38th percentile)
Unemployment, Educational Attainment and MHI Level — 'Strongest'
The overall strength of Cambridge's demographic and economic level indicators (unemployment rate, educational
attainment, MHI in 2024 are assessed as 'Strongest' on a composite basis, performing at the 92nd percentile of Fitch's
local government rating portfolio. This is due to relatively strong education attainment levels, median-issuer indexed
adjusted MHI and unemployment rate.
•
Unemployment rate as a percentage of national rate: 66.7% 2023 (91st percentile), relative to the national
rate of 3.6%
•
Percentage of population with a bachelor's degree or higher: 80.2% (2023) (100th percentile)
•
MHI as a percentage of the portfolio median: 142.3% (2023) (85th percentile)
Economic Concentration and Population Size — 'Strongest'
Cambridge's population in 2023 was of sufficient size and the economy was sufficiently diversified to qualify for
Fitch's highest overall size/diversification category.
Cambridge, Massachusetts
New Issue │ February 14, 2025
fitchratings.com
5
Public Finance
Tax Supported
United States
The composite metric acts asymmetrically, with most issuers (above the 15th percentile for each metric) sufficiently
diversified to minimize risks associated with small population and economic concentration. Downward effects of the
metric on the Metric Profile are most pronounced for the least economically diverse issuers (in the fifth percentile for
the metric or lower). The economic concentration percentage shown below is defined as the sum of the absolute
deviation of the percentage of personal income by major economic sectors relative to the U.S. distribution.
•
Population size: 118,214 (2023) (above the 15th percentile)
•
Economic concentration: 46.0% (2024) (above the 15th percentile)
Long-Term Liability Burden
Long-Term Liability Burden — 'Midrange'
Cambridge's long-term liability metrics range from 'weak' to 'strong' across each of the three dimensions: liabilities to
personal income, liabilities to governmental revenue and carrying costs to governmental expenditures. The long-term
liability composite metric in 2024 is at the 56th percentile, roughly in line with Fitch's local government rating
portfolio.
•
Liabilities to personal income: 6.7% analyst input (39th percentile) (vs. 6.1% 2024 actual)
•
Liabilities to governmental revenue: 89.8% analyst input (89th percentile) (vs. 81.9% 2024 actual)
•
Carrying costs to governmental expenditures: 14.7% (2024) (50th percentile)
Additional Insight
The OPEB contribution requirements of OPEB plan members and the city are established and may be amended by the
city. Ten percent of the calculated contribution is currently paid by retirees through pension benefit deductions. The
state allows up to 50% to be paid by retirees. The remainder of such cost is funded by the city. The city currently
contributes enough money to the OPEB plan to satisfy current obligations on a pay-as-you-go basis, but has
historically overfunded to support fund assets. The city’s net OPEB liability of $756 million was 5% funded as of fiscal
2024 and represents 5% of personal income.
The city updated the pension funding strategy to smooth out annual contributions between fiscal 2025 and fiscal 2028
to fully fund the unfunded pension liability by fiscal 2029. The change to fiscal 2029 was due to the city’s aggressive
funding scheduling and an actuarial loss in fiscal 2024, which would have resulted in substantially higher contributions
over the near term to meet the prior fully funded date. In fiscal 2025, the city contributed $78.8 million, which was
reset to $62.6 million in this actuarial valuation following the change in the fully funded date. The excess $16.2 million
above the $62.6 million actuarily determined contribution (ADC) will be used to offset fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027
actuarial contributions and move the estimated fully funded out to fiscal 2029.
Analyst Inputs to the Model
Analyst inputs to the model reflect metric adjustments to account for historical data anomalies, forward-looking
performance shifts or non-recurring events that may otherwise skew the time series.
Fitch adjusted the city’s debt liabilities to reflect amortization of principal on outstanding debt since the end of fiscal
2024 and the current 2025 issuance.
ESG Considerations
The highest level of ESG credit relevance is a score of '3', unless otherwise disclosed in this section. A score of '3' means
ESG issues are credit-neutral or have only a minimal credit impact on the entity, either due to either their nature or
the way in which they are being managed by the entity. Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores are not inputs in the rating
process; they are an observation on the relevance and materiality of ESG factors in the rating decision. For more
information on Fitch's ESG Relevance Scores, visit www.fitchratings.com/topics/esg/products#esg-relevance-scores.
Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com
Cambridge, Massachusetts
New Issue │ February 14, 2025
fitchratings.com
6
Public Finance
Tax Supported
United States
Financial Summary
($000, audited fiscal years ended June 30)
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
General fund revenues
Property tax
439,072
477,369
497,042
530,537
579,388
Sales tax
26,713
12,017
20,401
30,112
32,976
Income tax
—
—
—
—
—
Other tax
8,029
8,219
8,535
8,455
8,683
Total taxes - undifferentiated
—
—
—
—
—
Intergovernmental
82,997
88,639
71,847
76,348
82,213
Other revenue
141,347
152,589
143,334
174,699
211,853
Total
698,158
738,834
741,159
820,151
915,114
General fund expenditures
General government
41,729
49,577
49,050
53,528
58,884
Public safety
143,442
147,363
158,856
170,269
178,812
Educational
234,864
258,815
242,833
252,436
272,012
Debt service
74,276
78,833
82,107
86,986
89,251
Capital outlay
—
—
—
—
—
Other expenditures
165,223
192,006
201,407
214,812
232,934
Total
659,533
726,594
734,253
778,030
831,894
Transfers in and other sources
25,649
45,952
20,661
21,297
22,580
Transfers out and other sources
87,941
77,878
50,676
59,032
44,000
Net transfers & other
-62,291
-31,926
-30,015
-37,735
-21,420
Adjustment for bond proceeds and extraordinary one-time uses
—
21,456
—
—
—
Net Op. surplus (Deficit) after transfers
-23,666
-19,686
-23,109
4,386
61,800
Net Op. surplus (Deficit)/ (total expenditures + transfers out and other uses)(%)
-3.17
-2.51
-2.94
0.52
7.06
Total fund balance
364,065
344,379
321,270
325,656
387,456
Unrestricted fund balance
356,931
341,633
317,212
319,567
384,565
Other available fund balances
—
—
—
—
—
Total available unrestricted reserves (GF + Other)
356,931
341,633
317,212
319,567
384,565
Available reserves as % of spending (Adj for bond proceeds and other one-time uses)
47.75
43.63
40.41
38.18
43.91
Sources: Fitch Ratings, Fitch Solutions, Cambridge
Cambridge, Massachusetts
New Issue │ February 14, 2025
fitchratings.com
7
Public Finance
Tax Supported
United States
Long-Term Liability Burden
($000, audited fiscal year ended June 30)
2024
Direct debt
622,308
Less: Self-supporting debt
113,852
Net direct debt
508,456
Fitch adjusted NPL
382,283
Net direct debt + Fitch-adjusted net pension liabilities (NPL)
890,739
Population
118,214
Per capita personal income
123,795
Estimated personal income ($000)
14,634,298
Net debt + Fitch-adjusted NPL /personal income (%)
6.1
Total governmental revenues
1,088,133
Net direct debt + Fitch adjusted NPL as percentage of governmental revenue (%)
81.86
Debt service (net of state support)
89,251
Actuarially determined pension contributions
50,481
Actual OPEB contributions
27,818
Total Governmental expenditures
1,143,235
Carrying costs/governmental expenditures (%)
14.66
Note: Figures above do not reflect any analyst input adjustments.
Sources: Fitch Ratings, Fitch Solutions, Cambridge
Cambridge, Massachusetts
New Issue │ February 14, 2025
fitchratings.com
8
Public Finance
Tax Supported
United States
Summary
Description
Final value
Budgetary flexibility assessments
Revenue control assessment
High
Expenditure control assessment
Midrange
Collective bargaining and resolution framework
Midrange
Workforce outcomes
Midrange
Cost drivers
Midrange
Metrics assessments
Financial profile - financial resilience
aaa
Financial profile - revenue volatility
Strongest
Demographic & economic strength - trend
Weak
Demographic & economic strength - level
Strongest
Demographic & economic strength - concentration & size
Strongest
Long-Term liability burden
Midrange
Metric profile mapping
AAA
Metric profile
10.56
Additional analytical Factors
Total notching - capped
1
Financial profile
1
Fiscal oversight
Revenue capacity
1
Contingent risks
Non-recurring support or spending deferrals
Political risks
Management practices
Demographic & economic strength
Economic and institutional strength
Revenue concentration risks
School district resources
Long-term liability burden
Pension funding assumptions
Pension contributions
OPEB
Debt structure
Capital demands and affordability
Model implied rating - mapping
AAA
Model implied rating - metric
11.56
Outliers and developing situations considerations
No
Notching rationale - 1
Notching rationale - 2
Issuer default rating/ issuer default credit opinion
AAA
Outlook/Watch
RO:Sta
Source: Fitch Ratings
Cambridge, Massachusetts
New Issue │ February 14, 2025
fitchratings.com
9
Public Finance
Tax Supported
United States
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