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A communication transmitted from Louis A. DePasquale, City Manager, relative to the City of Cambridge retaining its noteworthy distinction of being one of approximately 33 municipalities in the United States with AAA ratings from each of the nation’s three major credit rating agencies

CMA 2018 #36·Council meeting Feb 26, 2018·6 pages·📄 Original PDF (city portal)
U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CREDIT OPINION 15 February 2018 Contacts Nicholas Lehman [phone removed] VP-Senior Analyst [email removed] Thomas Jacobs [phone removed] Senior Vice President [email removed] CLIENT SERVICES Americas [phone removed] Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 Cambridge (City of) MA Update to credit analysis Summary Cambridge, Massachusetts (Aaa stable) benefits from a sizeable and diverse tax base that continues to grow significantly year over year. The city's economy is driven largely by the presence of Harvard University (Aaa stable) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT, Aaa stable) and the significant research and development sector. The city's financial position is strong with very healthy liquidity and reserves that are maintained by strong fiscal management. Both the debt burden and long term liabilities for pension and OPEB are will remain manageable over the near term. Exhibit 1 Strong fiscal management contributes to growing, healthy cash and reserves 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Fund Balance as a % of Revenues Cash Balance as a % of Revenues As of June 30 fiscal year end Source: Moody's Investors Service and Cambridge's audited financial statements Credit strengths » Large and diverse tax base anchored by institutional presences and robust commercial sector » Healthy financial position guided by formal policies » Strong fiscal management
MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE » Ample operating flexibility with excess levy capacity under Proposition 2½ » Expected to fully fund pension liability by 2026 Credit challenges » High regional cost of living and cost of business Rating outlook The stable outlook reflects the strong fiscal management practices that we expect to maintain a healthy financial position given conservative multi-year budget forecasting and adherence to formal fiscal policies. The outlook also incorporates the stabilizing presence of the higher education institutions as well as the ongoing trend of consistent tax base growth from both appreciation and development. Factors that could lead to a downgrade » Material growth in the debt burden or pension liability » Deterioration in the tax base or weakening of the local economy » Trend of operating deficits leading to significant reduction in cash and reserves Key indicators Exhibit 2 Cambridge (City of) MA 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Economy/Tax Base Total Full Value ($000) $26,640,125 $26,640,125 $29,733,818 $29,733,818 $39,570,829 Population - - 107,916 105,162 105,162 Full Value Per Capita $251,947 $249,337 $275,527 $282,743 $376,284 Median Family Income (% of US Median) 144.4% 151.8% 158.2% 158.2% 158.2% Finances Operating Revenue ($000) $477,946 $520,910 $541,899 $560,698 $594,597 Fund Balance ($000) $193,702 $225,692 $273,670 $299,408 $330,342 Cash Balance ($000) $226,051 $260,517 $306,259 $333,793 $363,415 Fund Balance as a % of Revenues 40.5% 43.3% 50.5% 53.4% 55.6% Cash Balance as a % of Revenues 47.3% 50.0% 56.5% 59.5% 61.1% Debt/Pensions Net Direct Debt ($000) $356,269 $351,692 $399,159 $405,399 $417,765 3-Year Average of Moody's ANPL ($000) $704,970 $829,503 $815,568 $832,179 $853,029 Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x) 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x 0.7x Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%) 1.3% 1.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.1% Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Revenues (x) 1.5x 1.6x 1.5x 1.5x 1.4x Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Full Value (%) 2.6% 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.2% As of June 30 fiscal year end Source: Moody's Investors Service and Cambridge's audited financial statements This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history. 2 15 February 2018 Cambridge (City of) MA: Update to credit analysis
MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE Profile Cambridge is a sizeable community in Massachusetts (Aa1 stable) adjacent to the City of Boston (Aaa stable). Cambridge, whose economy and tax base are anchored by several prominent higher education and health care institutions, has a population of approximately 108,000. Detailed credit considerations Economy and tax base: Strong economy and tax base anchored by world renowned institutions Cambridge's economy will continue to benefit from the presence of Harvard and MIT which together enroll 33,000 students and provide employment equivalent to 21,000 full-time positions (roughly 18% of the city's workforce). In addition, the city is home to a vibrant commercial sector including biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries, which together employ an additional 21,000 people. Together the universities and mentioned industries comprise just under 60% of the jobs provided by the top 25 employers. Recently, a top employer, Akamai, announced the layoff of 400 employees, approximatly 5% of its global workforce. However, this type of news is mitigated by the continued influx of startups and related venture capital firms who value the highly education workforce. The top ten taxpayers are slightly concentrated, representing 20.1% of 2018 assessed value. MIT, with its significant taxable property, is the largest taxpayer, representing 7.3% of the city's base. The $39.6 billion tax base (2018 equalized value) is large and is expected to continue to grow over the next several years given strong housing demand and the strength of the overall economy. The 2018 assessed value growth of 10.1%, the fourth consecutive year of double digit growth, brought the five year compound annual growth rate to 10.1% as well. Given the redevelopment success of Kendall Square, new development in other parts of the city will continue to contribute to tax base growth with projects that include the MBTA green line extension, the long term development of the Volpe center and focus on the neighborhoods of Cambridge Crossing and Alewife. Additionally, commercial vacancy rates remain well below the regional average. Resident income levels remain above average relative to the commonwealth and national medians, despite the large student population. Median family income equals 120% and 158% of the commonwealth and national medians, respectively. Also, the unemployment rate of 2.3% (October 2017) remains below Massachusetts' and the nation's rates of 3.3% and 3.9%. Financial operations and reserves: Strong financial position will continue to be bolstered by conservative fiscal management The city's financial position will remain healthy over the near term given ample liquidity and reserves that are maintained by conservative fiscal management. The fiscal 2017 audited financials reflect an operating surplus of $31.7 million due to positive variance in revenues mostly from excise taxes as well as conservative budgeting for expenditures. The surplus, the city's sixth in a row, increased available general fund balance (assigned, unassigned and committed) to $330.3 million or a very healthy 53.7% of revenues. Property taxes represented the largest revenue source (61% of total revenues) while education (34% of total expenditures) and public safety (22%) represented the largest expenses. The fiscal 2018 operating budget increased 4.97% over last year's adjusted operating budget driven by salaries and pension contributions. The budget included a 4.4% increase in the tax levy and a $12.2 million appropriation of free cash, mostly for one-time costs. Current operations are trending on budget with a very minor deficit in snow and ice expenses that will likely be offset by overall positive operating variance. The city's fiscal 2019-2022 budget projections indicate balanced annual operations using conservative assumptions. The expenditure projections include a 2.5% annual increase in salaries, 6.66% in pension contributions, and school department costs increase by a 6% property tax increase. The revenue projections include level funding of state aid while real and personal property taxes increase by an average 7.4% annually. The city also maintains $181.5 million in unused levy capacity, equal to just under 30% of revenues. This provides significant operating flexibility under Proposition 2 ½ that is not available to most municipalities in Massachusetts given the need to levy to the tax levy limit each year. LIQUIDITY Cash and investments at the end of fiscal 2017 totaled $363.4 million representing an ample, 59.1% of revenues. 3 15 February 2018 Cambridge (City of) MA: Update to credit analysis
MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE Debt and pension liabilities: Debt burden and long term liabilities will remain manageable over near term The net direct debt burden of 1.3% of equalized value is average and will likely remain manageable over the near term despite the possibility of a slight increase due to growing capital plans. The overall debt burden, incorporating the overlapping debt of the Massachusetts Water Resources Authority (Aa1 stable), is 1.7%. Favorably, almost 30% of the outstanding debt is supported by sewer and other user fees. The fiscal 2018 capital budget totals $124.8 million, a 49% increase from 2017. The increase is driven largely by school projects. Future debt plans total $392.6 million over the next four years (2019-2022) to fund $162 million of elementary school construction and $89 million sewer reconstruction projects. DEBT STRUCTURE The entire debt portfolio consists of fixed rate debt with 84% of principal retired in ten years. Fiscal 2017 debt service was $57.8 million or 9.9% of general fund expenditures. DEBT-RELATED DERIVATIVES The city is not party to any interest rate swaps or other derivative agreements. PENSIONS AND OPEB The city participates in the City of Cambridge Retirement System, a cost sharing multiple employer defined benefit retirement plan. The city contributed $30.9 million in fiscal 2017 ($300,000 more than the actuarially determined contribution), equal to a manageable 5.3% of general fund expenditures. The fiscal 2017 three-year average Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability (ANPL), under Moody's methodology for adjusting reported pension data, is $853 million, or an average 1.4 times general fund revenues or 2.2% of equalized value. The city plans to fully fund the pension plan by 2026, well ahead of the state mandated date of 2040. To meet this aggressive funding schedule, the city projects that pension costs will increase 6.7% annually, and the city will continue contributing an additional $300,000 over the required contribution. The city also contributed $20.3 million towards its annual OPEB cost in 2016, representing 36% of the annual required contribution. The total unfunded liability is $609 million with a funded ratio of 1.7%, as of the June 30, 2017 valuation report. In addition to the annual contribution the city continues to annually budget and contribute $2 million to its OPEB trust with a current total balance of $13 million. Total fixed costs for fiscal 2017, including debt service, required pension contributions and retiree healthcare payments, represented $109 million, or a slightly elevated 18.7% of expenditures. Management and governance: Strong fiscal management will continue to bolster credit strength The experienced management team is very strong, as evidenced by continued growth in liquidity and reserves as well as adherence to formal fiscal policies, conservative multi-year budgeting and capital planning. Massachusetts cities have an Institutional Framework score of Aa, which is high compared to the nation. Institutional Framework scores measure a sector's legal ability to increase revenues and decrease expenditures. Massachusetts cities major revenue source, property taxes, are subject to the Proposition 2 1/2 cap which can be overriden with voter approval only. However, the cap of 2.5% still allows for moderate revenue-raising ability. Unpredictable revenue fluctuations tend to be minor, or under 5% annually. Across the sector, fixed and mandated costs are generally greater than 25% of expenditures. However, Massachusetts has public sector unions, which can limit the ability to cut expenditures. Unpredictable expenditure fluctuations tend to be minor, under 5% annually. 4 15 February 2018 Cambridge (City of) MA: Update to credit analysis
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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE CLIENT SERVICES Americas [phone removed] Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 6 15 February 2018 Cambridge (City of) MA: Update to credit analysis