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A communication transmitted from Louis A. DePasquale, City Manager, relative to the City of Cambridge retaining its AAA rating from the nation's three major credit rating agencies
U.S. PUBLIC FINANCE
CREDIT OPINION
19 February 2021
Contacts
Nicholas Lehman
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VP-Senior Analyst
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David Levett
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VP-Senior Analyst
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Cambridge (City of) MA
Update to credit analysis
Summary
Cambridge (Aaa stable) benefits from a large and diverse tax base that continues to
experience strong growth. The city's economy is driven by the presence of Harvard University
(Aaa stable) and Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT, Aaa stable) and the impressive
research and development sector. Cambridge's financial position is strong with very
healthy reserves and liquidity that are maintained by formal policies and conservative fiscal
management. Both the debt burden and long term liabilities for pension and OPEB are
conservatively managed and are expected to remain manageable.
Credit strengths
» Large tax base anchored by institutional presence and robust commercial sector
» Healthy financial position guided by formal policies and strong fiscal management
» Ample operating flexibility with excess levy capacity under Proposition 2½
» Low adjusted net pension liability that will decline further given annual pension
contributions above the tread water metric
Credit challenges
» High regional cost of living and cost of business
» Taxpayer concentration in research and development
Rating outlook
The stable outlook reflects the city’s strong fiscal management that is committed to
maintaining a healthy financial position given conservative multi-year budget forecasting and
adherence to formally adopted fiscal policies. The outlook also incorporates the stabilizing
presence of Harvard University and MIT as well as the long historical trend of positive
valuation growth in the tax base.
Factors that could lead to an upgrade
» Not applicable
Factors that could lead to a downgrade
» Material growth in the debt burden or unfunded long term liabilities
» Significant deterioration in the tax base or weakening of the local economy
MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE
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» Trend of operating deficits that lead to significant reduction in cash and reserves
Key indicators
Exhibit 1
Cambridge (City of) MA
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Economy/Tax Base
Total Full Value ($000)
$29,733,818
$39,570,829
$39,570,829
$49,449,366
$49,449,366
Population
108,757 110,893 115,665 116,632 116,632
Full Value Per Capita
$273,397
$356,838
$342,116
$423,978
$423,978
Median Family Income (% of US Median)
159.0%
167.1%
170.7%
174.5%
174.5%
Finances
Operating Revenue ($000)
$560,698
$594,597
$632,640
$658,347
$698,158
Fund Balance ($000)
$299,408
$330,342
$366,134
$384,406
$356,931
Cash Balance ($000)
$333,793
$363,415
$401,145
$422,033
$394,925
Fund Balance as a % of Revenues
53.4%
55.6%
57.9%
58.4%
51.1%
Cash Balance as a % of Revenues
59.5%
61.1%
63.4%
64.1%
56.6%
Debt/Pensions
Net Direct Debt ($000)
$405,399
$417,765
$457,347
$492,508
$482,543
3-Year Average of Moody's ANPL ($000)
$832,179
$853,029
$867,947
$823,339
$799,364
Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%)
1.4%
1.1%
1.2%
1.0%
1.0%
Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x)
0.7x
0.7x
0.7x
0.7x
0.7x
Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Full Value (%)
2.8%
2.2%
2.2%
1.7%
1.6%
Moody's - adjusted Net Pension Liability (3-yr average) to Revenues (x)
1.5x
1.4x
1.4x
1.3x
1.1x
As of June 30 fiscal year end
Sources: Moody's Investors Service and Cambridge's audited financial statements
Profile
Cambridge is a large, diverse urban community that neighbors the City of Boston (Aaa stable) across the Charles River. The city’s
population totals approximately 116,600 and its economy and tax base are anchored by two world renowned higher education
institutions.
Detailed credit considerations
Economy and tax base: strong economy and tax base anchored by world renowned institutions
Cambridge's economy will continue to benefit from the presence of Harvard and MIT which together enroll 33,000 students and
provide employment equivalent to 21,000 full-time positions (roughly 18% of the city's workforce). In addition, the city is home to a
vibrant commercial sector including biotechnology and pharmaceutical industries. Together the universities and mentioned industries
comprise around 60% of the jobs provided by the top 25 employers. The Top 10 taxpayers are concentrated, representing 24% of 2021
assessed value. Although MIT with its significant taxable property, is the largest taxpayer, representing 9.6% of the city's base. Overall,
commercial property pays 65% of the city's fiscal 2021 property tax levy. The city also benefits from a commercial property tax rate of
$11.85 per $1,000 of value, which is well below Boston and other large surrounding cities.
The $63.5 billion tax base (2021-22 equalized value) is large and will continue to grow given strong housing demand and the strength
of the overall economy continuing to drive the commercial sector. The equalized value increased 28.4% since 2019's certification.
Additionally, the 2021 assessed value grew by 9.6%, bringing the five year compound annual growth rate to 12.2%. The city is
estimating that the impacts from the coronavirus pandemic will impact 2022 assessed value resulting in a projected decline of 3.2% in
This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page on
www.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.
2 19 February 2021
Cambridge (City of) MA: Update to credit analysis
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which new construction value will help to offset a 1% decline in the residential sector and 9% decline in the commercial sector. Positive
growth is expected to return in 2023.
Resident income and wealth levels are very strong relative to the commonwealth and US medians. The unemployment rate has
increased to 4.6% as of December 2020 but is well below the commonwealth's 7.1% and US's 6.5%. The city' unemployment rate was
at a very low 1.3% at the same time last year.
Financial operations and reserves: healthy financial position is expected to remain due to conservative budgeting and
robust revenue growth
The city's financial position will likely remain strong over the near term given ample liquidity, robust revenue growth and operating
flexibility under the tax levy limit that are maintained by conservative fiscal management. The fiscal 2020 audited financials reflect the
first year of declines in general fund reserves in many years due to transfers out to cover capital projects. The general fund produced
$38.6 million in excess revenues over expenditures due mostly to conservative expense budgeting. The city transferred $87.9 million
out of the general fund including $69.9 million to the capital projects fund and $15 million deposit into the affordable housing trust
fund. The transfers out resulted in a decline in general fund reserves. The available general fund balance declined to $356.9 million
representing a still very healthy 51.1% of revenue. The primary revenue source is property taxes representing 63% of general fund
revenue in fiscal 2020. The largest expenses are education and public safety representing 33% and 20% of 2020 expenditures.
The fiscal 2021 operating budget increased by 5.1% or $34.7 million over the prior year driven by salaries, health insurance and pension
costs. The budget is balanced with a 7.85% increase in the tax levy and $22 million of free cash used to lower the tax rate. The city also
continues to appropriate reserves toward capital, funding the OPEB trust and other one-time costs. Year-to-date operations are on
budget.
The city's fiscal 2021-25 budget projections indicated balanced annual operations using conservative assumptions. The expense
projections include a 2.5% annual increase in salaries in most years, pension contribution will increase by 12.1% in 2022 annually and
education costs increase by the value of a 6.5% property tax levy increase as a funding source for their budget. The revenue projections
include funding of state aid in line with the current budget recommendation for next year and flat thereafter, and an average annual
tax levy increase of 7.5%. The city also has $187 million of unused levy capacity, equal to 27% of general fund revenue. This provides
significant operating flexibility under Proposition 2½ that is not available to most municipalities in Massachusetts given the need to
levy to the tax levy limit each year.
Liquidity
Cash and investments at the end of fiscal 2020 equaled $394.9 million or a strong 56.6% of general fund revenue. The cash position is
not expected to materially change through fiscal 2021.
Debt, pension and OPEB liabilities: debt burden, pension and OPEB liabilities are expected to remain manageable
The debt and long term liabilities will remain manageable over the near term given conservative debt management and aggressive
funding towards the city's unfunded pension liability. Including the 2021 issuance, the city has $567.2 million in net direct debt equal
to 0.9% of equalized value and 0.8 times general fund revenue is average and will remain manageable. The city's debt management
policies include maintaining a debt to assessed value of less than 1.5%, gross debt service under 12.5% of operating expenses and 85%
of principal retired in 10 years. The fiscal 2021-25 public investment program totals $607.3 million, an increase of $35.1 million from
last year. Bond proceeds of $421.7 million or 69% of the program will be the largest source of funding. The program includes a 200%
increase in the fiscal 2021 capital budget to $312 million due to larger bond issuance to cover two large school projects.
Legal security
The city's general obligation unlimited tax bonds are secured by the city's full faith and credit, general obligation unlimited tax pledge
because the entire amount of debt service has been excluded from the tax levy limits of Proposition 2½. The city's general obligation
limited tax bonds are secured by the city's full faith and credit, general obligation limited tax pledge because not all of the debt service
has been excluded from the tax levy limitations of Proposition 2½. There is no distinction between the unlimited and limited tax bonds
due to the city's full faith and credit pledge as well as the city's ability to override the tax levy limit.
3 19 February 2021
Cambridge (City of) MA: Update to credit analysis
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Debt structure
All of the city's debt is fixed rate with 85% of principal retired in 10 years. Fiscal 2020 debt service totaled $74.3 million representing
11.3% of general fund expenses.
Debt-related derivatives
Cambridge is not party to any interest rate swaps or other derivative agreements.
Pensions and OPEB
Cambridge's pension and OPEB liabilities are larger than its bonded debt, but will likely decline in the coming years given very strong
contribution practices. The city participates in the City of Cambridge Retirement System, a cost sharing multiple employer defined
benefit retirement plan and makes annual required contributions based on its proportional share. The plan is likely to be fully funded
by 2026. Additionally, the city's teachers participate in the Massachusetts Teachers Retirement System in which the city receives on-
behalf payments toward the liability that is covered by the Commonwealth. The city also funds its OPEB liability on a pay-go basis
and makes modest annual deposits to an OPEB trust. The table below summarizes the city's 2020 debt, pension and OPEB unfunded
liabilities and contributions.
Exhibit 2
Cambridge's fiscal 2020 debt, pension and OPEB unfunded liabilities and contributions remain manageable
2020
Amount
($ thousands)
% of Operating Revenues
Discount Rate
Operating Revenue
698,158
Reported Net Pension Liability
183,560
26.29%
7.25%
Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability
912,206
130.66%
3.22%
Reported Net OPEB Liability
713,172
102.15%
3.67%
Moody's Adjusted Net OPEB Liability
736,553
105.50%
3.51%
Pension Contribution
34,956
5.01%
-
Pension Tread Water Gap [1]
-7,435
-1.06%
-
OPEB Contribution
22,193
3.18%
-
Net Direct Debt
482,543
69.12%
-
Debt Service
74,276
10.64%
-
Total Fixed Costs
131,425
18.82%
-
[1] A positive pension tread water gap reflects a pension contribution smaller than the amount required to prevent the unfunded liability from increasing if all plan assumptions are realized.
A negative tread water gap reflects a contribution larger than the amount required to keep the unfunded liability from increasing if all assumptions are realized.
Source: Moody's Investors Service and Cambridge's audited financial statements
The city's 2020 pension contribution was equal to a strong 127% of the tread water indicator which is the amount required to keep
the unfunded liability from increasing if all actuarial assumptions are realized. This level of funding has been similar to prior years with
annual contributions over the last five years, 2016-20 averaging 132% of tread water.
ESG considerations
Environmental
Environmental risks are not material to the city's credit profile at this time. Moody's affiliate Four Twenty Seven indicates that
Middlesex County in which the city resides has high exposure to hurricanes, medium exposure to extreme rainfall, water stress and sea
level rise and low exposure to heat stress. The city is committed to addressing environmental risk associated with flooding and heat
exposure. To date, the most comprehensive mitigation projects include improving natural barriers around the Alewife neighborhood as
well as heat mitigation efforts through its urban canopy-public shade tree investment program. Longer term the city expects to release
its Climate Change Preparedness and Resilience Plan by the end of calendar year 2021. The plan will include a net zero action plan for
government, residential and commercial development. The plan was scheduled to be released in 2020 but has been delayed due to
challenges related to the coronavirus pandemic.
4 19 February 2021
Cambridge (City of) MA: Update to credit analysis
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Social
Cambridge leverages its strong credit profile by focusing on significant community initiatives. These initiatives currently include
a robust bike ordinance, participatory budgeting that gives residents a voice in capital and other spending, the city providing a
proportional share of funding towards the MBTA green line extension, and offering a small business personal property tax exemption.
Additionally, the city continues to increase its funding towards affordable housing projects. In fiscal 2020 a supplemental appropriation
of $15 million was used to preserve 338 affordable housing units. In fiscal 2021 the city committed $12.3 million of Community
Preservation Act funding and $15 million from the capital budget to the Affordable Housing Trust to finance the creation and
preservation of new affordable housing.
Governance
The city's experienced management team is very strong, as evidenced by the maintenance of very healthy liquidity and reserves as well
as adherence to formal fiscal policies, conservative multiyear budgeting and capital planning.
Massachusetts cities have an Institutional Framework score of “Aa”, which is strong. The sector’s major revenue source of property
taxes, are subject to the Proposition 2 1/2 tax levy cap which can be overridden with voter approval only. However, the cap of 2.5%
still allows for moderate revenue-raising ability. Expenditures primarily consist of personnel costs, as well as education costs for cities
that manage school operations, and are highly predictable given state-mandated school spending guidelines and employee contracts.
Unpredictable revenue fluctuations tend to be minor, or under 5% annually. Across the sector, fixed costs are generally less than 25%
of expenditures. Fixed costs are driven mainly by debt service and pension costs. Unpredictable expenditure fluctuations tend to be
minor, under 5% annually.
5 19 February 2021
Cambridge (City of) MA: Update to credit analysis
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Rating methodology and scorecard factors
The US Local Government General Obligation Debt methodology includes a scorecard, a tool providing a composite score of a local
government’s credit profile based on the weighted factors we consider most important, universal and measurable, as well as possible
notching adjustments dependent on individual credit strengths and weaknesses. Its purpose is not to determine the final rating, but
rather to provide a standard platform from which to analyze and compare local government credits.
Exhibit 3
Cambridge (City of) MA
Scorecard Factors and Subfactors
Measure
Score
Economy/Tax Base (30%) [1]
Tax Base Size: Full Value (in 000s)
$63,505,736
Aaa
Full Value Per Capita
$544,497
Aaa
Median Family Income (% of US Median)
174.5%
Aaa
Notching Adjustments:[2]
Institutional Presence
Up
Finances (30%)
Fund Balance as a % of Revenues
51.1%
Aaa
5-Year Dollar Change in Fund Balance as % of Revenues
11.9%
Aa
Cash Balance as a % of Revenues
56.6%
Aaa
5-Year Dollar Change in Cash Balance as % of Revenues
12.7%
Aa
Management (20%)
Institutional Framework
Aa
Aa
Operating History: 5-Year Average of Operating Revenues / Operating Expenditures (x)
1.0x
Aa
Notching Adjustments:[2]
Unusually Strong or Weak Budgetary Management and Planning
Up
Debt and Pensions (20%)
Net Direct Debt / Full Value (%)
0.9%
Aa
Net Direct Debt / Operating Revenues (x)
0.8x
A
3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Full Value (%)
1.3%
Aa
3-Year Average of Moody's Adjusted Net Pension Liability / Operating Revenues (x)
1.2x
A
Scorecard-Indicated Outcome
Aaa
Assigned Rating
Aaa
[1] Economy measures are based on data from the most recent year available. [2] Notching Factors are specifically defined in the US Local Government General Obligation Debt
methodology. [3] Standardized adjustments are outlined in the GO Methodology Scorecard Inputs publication.
Sources: Moody's Investors Service and US Census Bureau
6 19 February 2021
Cambridge (City of) MA: Update to credit analysis
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