Policy Order # 23-133, regarding regarding possible projections of build-out of the Alewife Quadrangle under the proposed AOD-Q zoning petition

This memo provides information on possible projections of the build-out of the Alewife Quadrangle under the proposed AOD-Q zoning petition. It is important to note that zoning is a tool that creates the framework for development to happen in desired ways, but cannot create a timetable for such development. This memo represents our educated estimate of buildout of various land uses -- housing, commercial, open space, and public amenities -- over the next 20 years.

The projections are based on assumptions described below. Actual development timeframes may vary somewhat since the pace of development is impacted by both micro- and macro-economic factors such as cost of construction, interest rates, and availability of trained workforce, over many of which the City has minimal control. The AOD-Q zoning petition was drafted to incentivize residential development and deliver needed transportation and open space infrastructure funded through commercial development.

The outcome would be a balanced mixed-use district with new commercial and residential buildings, retail and other neighborhood uses serving residents and workers, parks and other green open spaces, and a connective network of complete streets.

Build-out Assumptions & Results

The proposed zoning creates four tiers of zoning regimes that can be applied to each parcel or group of parcels owned by a single entity: As-of Right, Special Permit, Basic Planned Unit Development (PUD), and Infrastructure PUD.

Ultimately, it is difficult to predict the time frame over which the Quadrangle’s transformation will occur, and whether developers will capitalize on the higher density options, take more cautious approaches, or refrain from development entirely. Staff have reviewed each parcel in the Quadrangle, as well as ownership 2

information and development history, and made a determination as to whether a parcel would be likely to redevelop under the new AOD-Q zoning; and if so, what a redevelopment may look like on a parcel-by-parcel basis. Our assumptions when calculating the estimated buildout are as follows.

Some parcels may not be redeveloped at all within a twenty-year time horizon, such as those with relatively new buildings (constructed since 1997) and parcels currently under construction. • Parcels with redevelopment potential of less than 50,000 square feet were assumed to pursue an as-of-right redevelopment approach under the base zoning tier. Parcels with redevelopment potential of greater than 50,000 square feet were assumed to pursue a special permit pathway.

If a parcel or combination of parcels is held by a single entity and consists of at least 180,000 square feet of land area, then the parcel was assumed to pursue one of the PUD pathways under the new zoning. Only those parcels or combination of parcels held by a single entity that exceed 1.5 million square feet of land area were assumed to pursue the Infrastructure PUD pathway. • As required in the zoning, Special Permit and both PUD development pathways require 40 percent of development to be residential.

Since the projects assumed to utilize the Special Permit pathway will typically be single building projects and the proposed residential heights and densities are significantly greater than what is proposed for commercial development, we anticipate a greater portion of Special Permit projects to develop as residential. Specifically, we assumed 60 percent of parcels obtaining Special Permits would be residential.

Based on the above assumptions, the following is an estimated range of development outcomes over the next twenty years under the proposed zoning.

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Estimated 2040 build-out:

Land Use

Gross Floor Area (GFA)

Residential GFA